Is the Nifty stretched? A Bollinger Band check after an 8.6% week
The Nifty 50 closed at 25,030.35 on Friday 6 November 2026, up 2.01% on the day and 8.58% on the week. That leaves it far above its short-term average on the daily chart, but not on the weekly chart. We checked what followed similar readings across 19 years of daily closes.
The short version. In the past cases we tested, stretched closes like this were often followed by a pause or a shallow dip, while a full fall back to today's average level was uncommon. Today's stretch is larger than almost any past case, so these frequencies are a rough guide and not a forecast.
How to read the terms
- Bollinger Bands: a moving average (the middle line) with an upper and lower band 2 standard deviations away.
- %B: where price sits in the bands. 0 is the lower band, 0.5 the middle, and 1 the upper band. Above 1 means the close is outside the top.
- Band width: the distance between the bands as a percentage of the middle line. A high number means the market has been moving a lot.
- σ distance: how many standard deviations the close is from the middle line.
Where the Nifty stands on the daily chart
The close is +8.3% from the 20-day average and outside the upper band of both the 20-day and 50-day bands. It is the 8th higher close in a row, a rise of 10.0% since the rally began on 2026-10-28. Only 0.8% of sessions in our back-test window closed this far above the 20-day average, and the widest gap was 21.1%.
| Average | Middle | Upper | Lower | %B | Band width | Above middle | σ away | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 SMA | 24,155.84 | 25,279.46 | 23,032.22 | 0.89 | 9.3% | +3.6% | 1.56σ | Near upper band |
| 10 SMA | 23,497.08 | 25,047.32 | 21,946.85 | 0.99 | 13.2% | +6.5% | 1.98σ | Near upper band |
| 20 SMA | 23,116.54 | 24,486.88 | 21,746.19 | 1.20 | 11.9% | +8.3% | 2.79σ | Above upper band |
| 50 SMA | 23,248.02 | 24,488.87 | 22,007.17 | 1.22 | 10.7% | +7.7% | 2.87σ | Above upper band |
The bands are widening quickly
Band width has reached 11.9%. Rising width on a rising price means volatility is expanding on the way up, so the upper band itself is climbing quickly.
The weekly chart tells a calmer story
On weekly closes, the Nifty is above the 5, 10, 20 and 50-week averages, but a %B of 0.94 on the 20-week bands means it is inside them. The 50-week average is only 3.1% below the close.
| Average | Middle | Upper | Lower | %B | Band width | Above middle | σ away | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 SMA | 23,270.01 | 25,096.91 | 21,443.11 | 0.98 | 15.7% | +7.6% | 1.93σ | Near upper band |
| 10 SMA | 23,255.47 | 24,714.52 | 21,796.42 | 1.11 | 12.5% | +7.6% | 2.43σ | Above upper band |
| 20 SMA | 23,746.91 | 25,200.89 | 22,292.92 | 0.94 | 12.2% | +5.4% | 1.77σ | Near upper band |
| 50 SMA | 24,280.22 | 26,444.06 | 22,116.38 | 0.67 | 17.8% | +3.1% | 0.69σ | Upper half |
What happened after similar stretched closes
We found every past close far above the daily 20 SMA, counting events at least 10 sessions apart once, and looked at the following sessions. The test uses 4,682 daily closes from 2007-09-17 to 2026-10-16, so it does not include the current rally.
| Past cases | Events | Dip of 2.2%+ in 10 sessions | Dip of 3.5%+ in 10 sessions | Median worst close in 10 sessions | Higher after 10 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5σ or more above the 20 SMA | 29 | 28% | 21% | −0.4% | 62% |
| 4% or more above the 20 SMA | 76 | 36% | 22% | −1.4% | 53% |
| 6% or more above the 20 SMA | 21 | 67% | 43% | −3.1% | 52% |
The groups disagree, and the most stretched group has only 21 events, mostly from 2007 to 2009. Averaging the three gives a rough frequency of about 45% for a dip to the upper band level within 10 sessions. Price was also higher 10 sessions later in 52% to 62% of cases, so strong moves often kept going before they rested.
Frequency of falling back to fixed levels
These rows use today's level of each line. Figures are averages of the three groups, rounded to the nearest 5% (nearest 1% below 10%).
| Fixed level | Level | From the close | 5 sessions | 10 sessions | 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily 20-SMA upper band | 24,487 | −2.2% | 25% | 45% | 50% |
| Daily 5 SMA | 24,156 | −3.5% | 9% | 30% | 40% |
| Daily 10 SMA | 23,497 | −6.1% | 6% | 10% | 25% |
| Daily 20 SMA | 23,117 | −7.6% | 3% | 3% | 7% |
Frequency of meeting a rising average
Averages keep moving, so a rising average can meet price without a large fall. This is an easier test than the fixed levels above.
| Close at or below the rising average | 5 sessions | 10 sessions | 20 sessions | 30 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 SMA | 70% | 95% | 100% | 100% |
| 10 SMA | 25% | 65% | 90% | 100% |
| 20 SMA | 7% | 30% | 65% | 80% |
Moves over the next three sessions
| Past cases, by close within 3 sessions | Events | Up 1%+ | Up 2%+ | Down 1%+ | Down 2%+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5σ or more above the 20 SMA | 29 | 41% | 7% | 10% | 7% |
| 4% or more above the 20 SMA | 76 | 37% | 18% | 30% | 13% |
| 6% or more above the 20 SMA | 21 | 24% | 19% | 48% | 43% |
| 4% or more above, after a 1.5%+ day | 44 | 39% | 23% | 34% | 27% |
| Average of these groups, rounded | 35% | 15% | 30% | 20% | |
| All sessions since 2021, for comparison | 1,428 | 32% | 11% | 28% | 11% |
Moves in both directions were more common after stretched closes than on an ordinary day. The groups give no clear lean either way.
Every rally of five or more sessions since 2007
A rally here is a run of at least five daily closes in a row, each higher than the one before. The test window holds 104. The average rise was 4.9% and the median 4.3%. The biggest was 17.3% in 5 sessions, ending on 2008-07-23.
What came after the top
| After the top | Median change | Closed higher than the top |
|---|---|---|
| 5 sessions | −0.2% | 44% |
| 10 sessions | +0.4% | 52% |
| 20 sessions | +0.9% | 59% |
The median lowest close in the next 20 sessions was −2.3% from the top, and the worst was −19.4%. In 88% of rallies, the Nifty closed above its top again within 20 sessions.
How often the averages were retested
Show all 104 rallies
"Worst dip" is the lowest close in the next 20 sessions, "Low day" the session it came on. Retest columns show the session of the first close at or below that average, or a dash if none came within 20 sessions.
| # | Began | Top | Sessions | Rise | After 5 | After 10 | After 20 | Worst dip | Low day | 5 SMA | 10 SMA | 20 SMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2007-09-18 | 2007-10-03 | 11 | +15.9% | +4.4% | +6.7% | +13.2% | −2.4% | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 |
| 2 | 2007-10-23 | 2007-10-29 | 5 | +13.9% | −1.0% | −3.6% | −3.5% | −6.5% | 17 | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| 3 | 2007-12-19 | 2007-12-27 | 5 | +5.9% | +1.6% | +1.2% | −17.2% | −19.4% | 18 | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| 4 | 2008-04-11 | 2008-04-22 | 6 | +6.7% | +2.9% | +1.7% | −0.5% | −1.8% | 14 | 2 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | 2008-07-17 | 2008-07-23 | 5 | +17.3% | −3.6% | +0.9% | −4.3% | −6.4% | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | 2008-08-05 | 2008-08-11 | 5 | +5.1% | −5.5% | −6.1% | −4.8% | −8.8% | 12 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | 2009-03-31 | 2009-04-08 | 5 | +12.2% | +1.2% | +4.1% | +10.1% | −0.4% | 8 | 4 | 8 | — |
| 8 | 2009-08-20 | 2009-08-28 | 7 | +7.7% | −1.1% | +2.0% | +5.8% | −2.9% | 4 | 1 | 3 | — |
| 9 | 2009-09-04 | 2009-09-11 | 6 | +5.1% | +3.0% | +3.7% | +5.8% | −0.4% | 1 | 1 | 13 | 17 |
| 10 | 2009-09-15 | 2009-09-22 | 5 | +4.4% | +1.3% | −0.4% | −1.0% | −1.5% | 11 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 11 | 2010-04-20 | 2010-04-26 | 5 | +2.3% | −1.9% | −2.4% | −7.1% | −7.6% | 17 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 | 2010-06-09 | 2010-06-17 | 7 | +5.8% | +0.9% | −0.4% | +2.0% | −0.7% | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
| 13 | 2010-09-06 | 2010-09-15 | 7 | +7.0% | +2.2% | +2.2% | +6.4% | −0.6% | 1 | 6 | 19 | — |
| 14 | 2010-10-29 | 2010-11-04 | 5 | +4.9% | −3.4% | −4.3% | −4.6% | −8.4% | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | 2011-02-11 | 2011-02-17 | 5 | +6.1% | −5.1% | −0.1% | −3.1% | −5.1% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 16 | 2011-02-25 | 2011-03-04 | 5 | +5.2% | −1.7% | −3.0% | +5.2% | −3.1% | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 17 | 2011-03-22 | 2011-03-31 | 8 | +8.7% | +0.9% | −1.8% | −4.6% | −4.6% | 20 | 6 | 7 | 17 |
| 18 | 2011-06-21 | 2011-06-30 | 8 | +7.4% | +1.4% | −1.2% | −2.9% | −2.9% | 20 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| 19 | 2012-01-31 | 2012-02-06 | 5 | +5.4% | +0.5% | +4.6% | −2.6% | −2.6% | 20 | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| 20 | 2012-06-04 | 2012-06-08 | 5 | +4.7% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +4.9% | −0.3% | 1 | 4 | — | — |
| 21 | 2012-09-06 | 2012-09-17 | 8 | +7.4% | +1.1% | +2.2% | +0.9% | −1.0% | 2 | 2 | 13 | 19 |
| 22 | 2012-10-31 | 2012-11-07 | 6 | +2.9% | −3.2% | −2.3% | +2.6% | −3.3% | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 23 | 2013-09-04 | 2013-09-11 | 5 | +10.7% | −0.2% | −0.7% | +1.8% | −3.0% | 13 | 3 | 8 | 13 |
| 24 | 2013-10-08 | 2013-10-14 | 5 | +3.5% | +1.5% | +1.8% | −2.0% | −2.0% | 20 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 25 | 2014-02-21 | 2014-02-28 | 5 | +3.0% | +4.0% | +3.6% | +6.8% | −0.9% | 1 | 1 | 13 | — |
| 26 | 2014-03-04 | 2014-03-10 | 5 | +5.1% | −0.3% | +0.8% | +4.0% | −0.8% | 7 | 3 | 7 | — |
| 27 | 2014-03-21 | 2014-04-02 | 9 | +4.2% | +0.7% | +1.0% | −1.5% | −1.5% | 20 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 28 | 2014-07-15 | 2014-07-24 | 8 | +5.1% | −2.9% | −3.4% | +1.0% | −3.4% | 10 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 29 | 2014-08-11 | 2014-08-19 | 6 | +4.3% | +0.1% | +2.8% | +1.0% | −0.3% | 1 | 15 | 16 | 19 |
| 30 | 2014-08-27 | 2014-09-03 | 5 | +2.7% | −0.2% | −1.7% | −2.1% | −2.5% | 16 | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| 31 | 2014-10-28 | 2014-11-05 | 6 | +4.3% | +0.2% | +0.8% | +2.7% | −0.0% | 1 | 9 | — | — |
| 32 | 2014-12-26 | 2015-01-02 | 5 | +2.7% | −1.3% | +1.4% | +4.8% | −3.5% | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 33 | 2015-01-15 | 2015-01-29 | 10 | +8.2% | −2.7% | −2.7% | −1.2% | −4.8% | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 34 | 2015-02-10 | 2015-02-19 | 7 | +4.3% | −2.4% | +0.5% | −3.6% | −3.6% | 20 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 35 | 2015-04-01 | 2015-04-13 | 7 | +4.0% | −4.6% | −6.7% | −6.9% | −8.8% | 15 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 36 | 2015-06-12 | 2015-06-23 | 8 | +5.2% | −0.2% | +1.5% | +1.8% | −0.8% | 4 | 4 | 11 | — |
| 37 | 2015-09-29 | 2015-10-07 | 6 | +4.9% | −0.8% | +0.9% | −2.7% | −2.7% | 20 | 3 | 14 | 15 |
| 38 | 2016-03-16 | 2016-03-23 | 6 | +3.4% | −0.0% | −2.1% | +3.4% | −2.2% | 9 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 39 | 2016-04-08 | 2016-04-20 | 6 | +4.9% | +0.8% | −2.6% | −0.6% | −2.6% | 10 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 40 | 2016-05-24 | 2016-05-30 | 5 | +5.8% | +0.3% | −0.8% | −1.0% | −1.1% | 19 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
| 41 | 2016-06-27 | 2016-07-04 | 6 | +3.5% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +3.0% | −0.6% | 3 | 3 | — | — |
| 42 | 2017-02-16 | 2017-02-23 | 6 | +2.5% | −0.5% | −0.1% | +1.2% | −0.7% | 2 | 1 | 5 | — |
| 43 | 2017-11-16 | 2017-11-27 | 8 | +2.8% | −2.6% | −0.7% | +1.3% | −3.4% | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 44 | 2018-01-03 | 2018-01-09 | 5 | +1.9% | +0.6% | +4.2% | −1.5% | −1.5% | 20 | 14 | 17 | 17 |
| 45 | 2018-01-17 | 2018-01-24 | 6 | +3.6% | −0.6% | −4.6% | −5.4% | −6.5% | 17 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 46 | 2018-04-05 | 2018-04-17 | 9 | +4.1% | +0.6% | +1.6% | +1.8% | −0.2% | 1 | 6 | 12 | — |
| 47 | 2018-07-06 | 2018-07-12 | 5 | +2.5% | −0.6% | +1.3% | +4.1% | −0.8% | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| 48 | 2018-08-03 | 2018-08-09 | 5 | +2.0% | 0.0% | +1.9% | −0.3% | −1.0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 49 | 2018-11-26 | 2018-12-03 | 6 | +3.4% | −3.6% | +0.0% | −0.8% | −3.6% | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 50 | 2018-12-11 | 2018-12-19 | 7 | +4.6% | −1.7% | −2.2% | −0.6% | −2.8% | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 51 | 2019-01-15 | 2019-01-21 | 5 | +2.1% | −2.7% | −0.5% | −3.3% | −3.3% | 20 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 52 | 2019-01-31 | 2019-02-07 | 6 | +3.9% | −3.1% | −2.5% | +0.9% | −4.2% | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 53 | 2019-03-11 | 2019-03-19 | 7 | +4.5% | −0.8% | +0.6% | +0.5% | −1.5% | 3 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 54 | 2019-09-04 | 2019-09-11 | 5 | +2.2% | −1.8% | +3.7% | +2.4% | −3.0% | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 55 | 2019-10-11 | 2019-10-18 | 6 | +3.8% | +1.1% | +2.2% | +2.9% | −0.7% | 3 | 3 | 15 | — |
| 56 | 2019-10-25 | 2019-11-04 | 6 | +3.1% | −0.2% | −0.0% | +0.4% | −0.8% | 6 | 4 | 6 | — |
| 57 | 2020-05-27 | 2020-06-03 | 6 | +11.4% | +0.5% | −1.8% | +3.7% | −2.5% | 8 | 4 | 6 | — |
| 58 | 2020-07-01 | 2020-07-07 | 5 | +4.8% | −1.8% | +3.4% | +2.7% | −1.8% | 5 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 59 | 2020-07-15 | 2020-07-21 | 5 | +5.2% | +1.2% | −0.6% | +2.0% | −2.4% | 9 | 4 | 7 | 9 |
| 60 | 2020-08-04 | 2020-08-11 | 6 | +4.0% | +0.6% | +1.3% | −0.1% | −1.3% | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 61 | 2020-08-21 | 2020-08-28 | 6 | +3.0% | −2.7% | −1.6% | −5.1% | −7.2% | 19 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 62 | 2020-09-30 | 2020-10-14 | 10 | +6.7% | −0.3% | −2.0% | +6.5% | −2.8% | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 63 | 2020-11-02 | 2020-11-11 | 8 | +9.5% | +0.2% | +1.9% | +6.0% | −0.5% | 1 | 5 | — | — |
| 64 | 2020-12-01 | 2020-12-09 | 7 | +4.3% | +1.1% | +0.5% | +4.5% | −1.5% | 8 | 8 | 8 | — |
| 65 | 2020-12-11 | 2020-12-18 | 6 | +2.1% | +0.8% | +2.7% | +3.8% | −3.1% | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 66 | 2020-12-22 | 2020-12-30 | 6 | +4.9% | +1.2% | +4.2% | −1.2% | −1.2% | 20 | 12 | 13 | 18 |
| 67 | 2021-01-08 | 2021-01-14 | 5 | +3.2% | −0.0% | −6.6% | +3.9% | −6.6% | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 68 | 2021-02-01 | 2021-02-08 | 6 | +10.9% | +1.3% | −2.9% | −1.1% | −3.9% | 14 | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| 69 | 2021-05-21 | 2021-05-31 | 7 | +4.5% | +1.1% | +1.5% | +1.5% | −0.1% | 1 | 7 | 13 | — |
| 70 | 2021-08-09 | 2021-08-17 | 7 | +2.3% | +0.1% | +2.8% | +6.1% | −1.0% | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| 71 | 2021-08-23 | 2021-08-31 | 7 | +4.1% | +1.3% | +2.3% | +3.4% | −0.3% | 1 | 8 | 13 | — |
| 72 | 2021-10-07 | 2021-10-18 | 7 | +4.7% | −1.9% | −3.0% | −2.6% | −4.4% | 9 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 73 | 2022-01-07 | 2022-01-13 | 5 | +2.9% | −2.7% | −6.3% | −4.8% | −6.3% | 10 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 74 | 2022-03-08 | 2022-03-14 | 5 | +6.4% | +2.6% | +2.7% | +3.9% | −1.2% | 1 | 7 | 19 | 1 |
| 75 | 2022-07-15 | 2022-07-22 | 6 | +4.9% | +2.6% | +4.1% | +5.1% | −1.4% | 2 | 2 | 19 | — |
| 76 | 2022-07-27 | 2022-08-03 | 6 | +5.5% | +1.6% | +2.1% | +1.6% | −0.4% | 16 | 10 | 11 | 16 |
| 77 | 2022-08-05 | 2022-08-18 | 8 | +3.3% | −2.4% | −2.3% | −2.4% | −3.6% | 7 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 78 | 2022-10-14 | 2022-10-24 | 7 | +4.2% | +2.3% | +2.4% | +3.0% | −0.4% | 1 | 11 | 11 | — |
| 79 | 2022-11-22 | 2022-12-01 | 8 | +3.6% | −1.1% | −2.1% | −3.3% | −5.3% | 16 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 80 | 2023-03-29 | 2023-04-13 | 9 | +5.2% | −1.1% | +1.3% | +3.2% | −1.2% | 3 | 1 | 3 | — |
| 81 | 2023-04-24 | 2023-05-02 | 6 | +3.0% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +2.7% | −0.4% | 3 | 3 | 11 | — |
| 82 | 2023-06-26 | 2023-07-06 | 8 | +4.5% | −0.4% | +2.5% | −0.6% | −0.8% | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 83 | 2023-07-13 | 2023-07-20 | 6 | +3.1% | −1.6% | −3.0% | −3.4% | −3.4% | 20 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 84 | 2023-09-01 | 2023-09-11 | 7 | +3.9% | +0.7% | −1.7% | −0.9% | −2.8% | 15 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
| 85 | 2023-11-28 | 2023-12-06 | 7 | +5.8% | −0.1% | +1.0% | +3.4% | −0.2% | 1 | 4 | 19 | — |
| 86 | 2023-12-21 | 2023-12-28 | 5 | +3.0% | −0.6% | −0.6% | −0.2% | −2.5% | 17 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 87 | 2024-01-09 | 2024-01-15 | 5 | +2.7% | −3.9% | −1.7% | −1.2% | −3.9% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 88 | 2024-02-13 | 2024-02-20 | 6 | +2.7% | +0.0% | +0.7% | −1.6% | −1.7% | 19 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 89 | 2024-04-19 | 2024-04-25 | 5 | +2.6% | −0.4% | −2.3% | +1.6% | −2.7% | 9 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 90 | 2024-05-16 | 2024-05-23 | 5 | +3.5% | −2.1% | −0.6% | +2.3% | −4.7% | 8 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| 91 | 2024-06-11 | 2024-06-18 | 5 | +1.3% | +0.7% | +2.4% | +4.5% | −0.2% | 3 | 3 | — | — |
| 92 | 2024-07-26 | 2024-08-01 | 5 | +2.5% | −3.6% | −1.9% | +0.9% | −4.1% | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 93 | 2024-08-14 | 2024-09-03 | 14 | +4.7% | −0.9% | +0.6% | +2.0% | −1.7% | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 94 | 2024-09-19 | 2024-09-26 | 6 | +3.3% | −4.6% | −4.8% | −7.8% | −7.8% | 20 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 95 | 2024-11-29 | 2024-12-05 | 5 | +3.3% | −0.7% | −3.1% | −2.9% | −4.5% | 11 | 3 | 8 | 9 |
| 96 | 2025-03-17 | 2025-03-25 | 7 | +5.7% | −1.4% | −5.4% | +2.8% | −6.4% | 8 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 97 | 2025-04-11 | 2025-04-23 | 7 | +8.6% | +0.0% | −0.2% | +1.1% | −1.3% | 11 | 2 | 10 | — |
| 98 | 2025-06-04 | 2025-06-11 | 6 | +2.4% | −1.3% | +0.4% | +1.3% | −1.7% | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 99 | 2025-08-13 | 2025-08-21 | 6 | +2.4% | −2.6% | −1.4% | +1.0% | −2.6% | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 100 | 2025-09-03 | 2025-09-12 | 8 | +2.2% | +0.8% | −1.8% | +0.5% | −2.0% | 12 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| 101 | 2025-10-15 | 2025-10-23 | 6 | +3.0% | −0.1% | −1.5% | +0.7% | −1.5% | 10 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
| 102 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-17 | 6 | +2.0% | −0.2% | +0.6% | +0.1% | −1.0% | 17 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 103 | 2026-04-01 | 2026-04-08 | 5 | +7.5% | +0.8% | +0.7% | +0.8% | −0.9% | 1 | 10 | 10 | — |
| 104 | 2026-06-12 | 2026-06-18 | 5 | +4.3% | −0.5% | +0.4% | +0.7% | −1.4% | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
What the evidence does and does not say
- Daily chart: stretched, with the close 2.8σ above the 20 SMA and 2.9σ above the 50 SMA.
- Weekly chart: not stretched, with %B at 0.94.
- Size of past dips: the median worst close over 10 sessions was −0.4% to −3.1%, depending on how stretched the setup was.
- Deep falls: a close back at today's 20 SMA level (23,117) occurred in about 3% of cases within 10 sessions and 7% within 20.
What would change this reading
The upper band of the 5-day average sits at 25,279. A close above it with band width still rising would extend the move further beyond most of the past cases used here, and the frequencies above would then be even less representative. We have not tested that condition separately.
Limits of this analysis
- Small samples. The groups hold only 21 to 76 events, and they overlap and disagree, so read every figure as a range.
- An unusual starting point. A gap of 8.3% is larger than nearly all past cases.
- Averaged figures. The rounded frequencies are simple averages of the groups. They are not calibrated probabilities.
- Closing prices only. Intraday highs and lows can go further than the closes used here.
- No costs or trades. This describes index behaviour. It is not a tested trading strategy.
Data and method
Today's close is from the NSE index file for 6 November 2026. Bands use a simple moving average and 2 population standard deviations, on our own stored daily closes. The back-test uses a daily Nifty 50 file from Yahoo Finance. Weekly bars use Friday closes. We recalculated every figure on this page from those files.
This is research on historical data for education only, not investment advice or a recommendation. See our disclaimer and editorial policy.